Monday, March 14, 2010 - 4:09PM CDT
Monday, March 14, 2010 - 4:09PM CDT |
March 19-20 forecast - update 2
Posted 4:09PM CDT Monday: The last two runs of the GFS and Euro have kept the same general upper air pattern for Friday and Saturday. The concerns I have with the setup are the strength of the dynamics and the potential for limited instability. The low is shown rapidly deepening into Saturday - this would favor more rain and cloud cover, with very little instability to work with in the afternoon. If instability is realized, the forcing may be too strong for isolated supercells, instead favoring a squall line early in the day. Gulf SSTs, according to NOAA bouy data, have actually dropped in the past week. Immediately prior to the flow turning southwesterly aloft, a northwesterly flow pattern will have been in place over the Gulf for several days. This makes it improbable that we will get much moisture return in time for the arrival of the dynamics of the main event on Saturday.
Friday still holds some potential in the Plains, with a sliver of weak instability still indicated by the GFS in western Oklahoma. However, wind fields may not be as strong on Friday afternoon to support much of a threat. Either way I have no plans to chase in the Plains, as the threat level is below my 'extended range chase threshold' - and with parameters stronger on Saturday closer to St. Louis, I would likely not be able to make it back here in time to chase both days.
The GFS also continues to indicate a potential snow event on the back side of the low for parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa.
Posted 1:39PM CDT Sunday: I've been watching, with some interest, an upper trough shown by the past few runs of the GFS and Euro models to affect the Plains and/or Midwest next weekend. The GFS had been the faster of the two models, showing the system being a Friday event - while the Euro kept it a later show, around the Saturday afternoon time frame. The latest run of the GFS has placed the event more on Saturday in the Mississippi Valley - and if this actually comes to pass as shown, it could be a very potent outbreak.
Keep in mind that this is still 5-6 days out, a long time when dealing with models - and the details/specifics are nearly impossible to nail down this far out. However, let's look at the possible scenario painted by the latest GFS run (12z today), which would place a chase target somewhere from southern Illinois down through western Tennessee and Kentucky:
First, a trough with strong mid/upper jet streak:
This overtop of a nose of dewpoints in the 50s:
...and a strong surface low with backing winds in the warm sector:
All of these are solid ingredients for a tornado event if any semblance of this pattern actually takes place. Again, this 'target' could a.) shift 500 miles in any direction as the event draws closer, b.) end up as a non-tornadic squall line due to forcing being too strong or c.) vanish altogether. At any rate, it is definitely something to watch for next weekend. A winter storm is also possible on the back side of this system as it moves east. I'll be posting more updates on the forecast as the potential event draws closer.
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Saturday, March 13, 2010 - 4:12PM CST |
Week in pictures; 2 month mark
I'm a little past the 2 month mark of being moved in here in the St. Louis area, and everything is going well. The apartment and town is a quiet place (aside from the trains, which of course I'm OK with). In fact, I heard an ambulance last week, and realized I hadn't heard one siren since I got here in January! It feels great to make the even normally mundane errands surrounded by the huge sky and flat land that I love to see. For the most part, I haven't been able to venture outside much for leisure (thanks to the brutal winter), but that's about to change. This evening I'm heading to a bike shop to get 'slick' tires for my mountain bike, which will make it easier to ride on the roads. Once the weather allows, I plan to use my bike as a primary mode of transportation around town, as well as go on one or two-hour rides at least two or three times a week. Back at my WV house, a huge hill (in all directions) was a psychological barrier to riding regularly - the thought of having to come back up that mountain at the end of a ride was a motivation-killer. Now that I'm surrounded by flat land, I don't have an excuse to not get out and ride.
Changing the subject - here are a few photos from this past week that don't fit anywhere else and wouldn't typically warrant their own post otherwise:
Oklahoma/Kansas state line near Baxter Springs, KS on Wednesday. Being in these two states this week marks my 10th straight year of making it to the Plains region in the spring. Hopefully there will be many more to come.
Not all of Kansas is flat! Yes, this is actually Kansas here - extreme southeast KS, near Baxter Springs. You might be suprised to learn that many parts of eastern OK and KS are like this. Though there are still flat areas around here, the 'classic' Great Plains landscape (flat, treeless prairie for as far as you can see) doesn't really start until you get to the I-35 corridor (around Oklahoma City and Wichita).
I saw what I first thought was a contrail-distrail combination at the 'anvil cirrus' altitude near Springfield, MO on Wednesday. However, it looks like the black streak is from a separate exhaust, as the trails twist around each other.
Morning rush hour in downtown St. Louis just before 7AM, on the way to a storm chase target on Wednesday. Inbound traffic is not too bad coming in from the east, the only backups I've seen are here at the Poplar Street bridge (the I-70/I-64 Mississippi crossing). Morning rush traffic seemed a lot worse on the other highways around the city - I-270 (on the west side of town) was pretty bad when I passed it.
The 'walk in the woods' was one aspect of chasing that the movie "Twister" was right about. GPS sofware often doesn't make a distinction between paved/unpaved roads - or even passable/impassable, often to a chaser's chagrin. This is near Baxter Springs, Kansas on Wednesday. I wasn't stuck here, I just stopped to take a picture because I thought it was a classic storm chasing GPS moment. It's times like this that I'm thankful for the high ground clearance of a truck.
Sunrise last Thursday near Mascoutah, with some blackbirds. The majority of our sunrises/sunsets have looked like this lately.
Westbound Norfolk Southern train at the County Line Road crossing in New Baden, again with the ubiquitous blackbirds:
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| Good pics; nice vignettes; and superb usage of "ubiquitous". Welcome to the great Midwest! - Posted by Karisa |
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| In regard to GPS software showing paved/unpaved roads properly, it is not intended to do so. It bases roads on whether they are federal, state, or locally maintained. Locally maintained roads, whether paved or not, will all show up as "local" roads. - Posted by Scott |
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| Scott, thanks for the info - never heard that before. Just a little weird that the gray lines can mean anything from a 70mph two-lane highway to a rutted path in the woods only passable via ATV. - Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL |
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| Thanks Karisa! I think that's the first time "vignettes" has been used here too! - Posted by Dan Robinson from New Baden, IL |
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| nice shots did you come as far south as Neosho - Posted by Danny Gordon from Granby MO |
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| Thanks Danny, I was in Neosho for a few minutes yesterday. I came in from Wyandotte, OK and then went north on 71. - Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL |
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| Great shots Dan! - Posted by Dann Cianca from Centennial (Greenwood Park), Colorado |
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| Thanks Dann! - Posted by Dan R. from New Baden, IL |
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| Dan, maybe we will run into you this afternoon. My chase partner and I are about to head towards the eastern half of AR...going through the morning data as we speak... - Posted by Clarence from Nashville |
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